Ocean Pointe, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

576
FXHW60 PHFO 131358
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
358 AM HST Tue Jan 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

A weakening cold front dissipate over the Big Island today.
Expect much drier and cooler conditions for the state except for
the Big Island where remnants of the front will linger. Winds will
veer southerly tonight and Wednesday as the next front approaches
from the northwest. Expect breezy to locally windy south
southwesterly wind Wednesday. The front is forecast to quickly
slide down the island chain Wednesday night into Thursday and
bring a line of moderate locally heavy rainfall with it. The week
should end cool and fairly dry with trades re- established.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest satellite and radar imagery show the main frontal band
dissipating over the Big Island early this morning. Peak rainfall
totals from the frontal passage so far range from over 1.0 inch
of rainfall from North Kohala to North Hilo to 0.10 inches of an
inches over the South Kohala and North Kona districts. Elsewhere,
post frontal subsidence aloft made for a dry and cool evening.
Dewpoints range from low 50s to low 60s across the state this
morning. Winds have also relaxed to light to moderate breezy
northerly winds. Expect mostly dry and sunny conditions today as
dry subsident air aloft settles in and winds veer to a
northeasterly flow. Parts of the Big Island and Maui will likely
see clouds and showers linger through the day due to remnant
moisture around the Big Island that will keep isolated to
scattered light showers around for windward areas as trades
redevelop and for upslope Kona as the afternoon seabreeze
develops.

Winds will veer southerly tonight as the next cold front
approaches the islands from the northwest. Winds speeds will
gradually strengthen to breezy to windy by mid- day Wednesday out
of the south southwest. Wind speeds may meet or exceed wind
advisory criteria along ridgetops and areas downslope of elevated
terrain in a predominate southwesterly flow during this time.
This is so far the most concerning hazard with the next system
where winds could be strong enough to uproot trees in saturated
soils especially downslope of ridges. Winds may also meet or
exceed advisory levels for the summits of the Big Island. Both the
GFS and ECMWF show moisture lifting northward over the western
half of the state, ahead of the front, which will be conducive
for pockets of prefrontal showers to develop within this flow. For
the eastern half of the state, dry conditions prevail tonight
into Wednesday.

The main rainband associated with the next front will quickly
move through Kauai beginning late afternoon Wednesday and Oahu
Wednesday evening. The rainband will then sweep across Maui County
early Thursday morning before pushing through the Big Island
Thursday. Latest guidance depicts this system to be similar, but
more robust, than the one experienced yesterday with moderate to
locally heavy rain embedded within the rainband. Thunderstorms
appear to remain northeast of the coastal waters at this time.
The threat of flash flooding remains limited due to how quickly
this front will move over the state.

Breezy northerly winds will immediately fill in behind the front
and once again bring noticeably drier and cooler weather with
dewpoints dropping in the low 50`s to low 60`s. These northerly
winds will shift easterly over the weekend as a surface high
quickly passes northeast of the state. Upper level ridging will
keep mostly dry and stable tradewind weather through the weekend.
In the extended forecast another potentially robust front will
move over the state early next week, however there is still some
significant difference in the timing and strengthen between the
GFS and ECMWF deterministic models and will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will weaken and dissipate over the Big Island today.
Gentle to breezy northerly winds have filled in behind the front
ushering in drier and more stable air. Expect mostly VFR
conditions today, except for the Big Island where lingering clouds
and showers will create brief MVFR conditions. MVFR conditions
are possible later tonight over the western half of the state as
prefrontal showers develop in veering southeasterly flow, while
drier conditions settle in over the eastern half of the state.

Breezy to locally windy south southwesterly winds are expected Wednesday
along with an increase in clouds and showers as a robust front
approaches the state from the northwest.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in effect for the windward
portions of the Big Island.

AIRMET TANGO is in effect over the entire state due moderate turb
between FL220/320.


&&

.MARINE...
The forward motion of a diminishing cold front has stalled out near
the Big Island this morning. This front will fade into a trough
later today and then drift westward across the islands, ahead of
the next approaching cold front. This next strong cold front will
sweep from west to east through the western islands on Wednesday
morning, and once again stalling out near the Big Island by
Thursday afternoon. A passing high pressure system far north of
the islands will bring back easterly trade winds across Hawaiian
Waters from Friday through Sunday. Winds weaken and veer from a
more southeasterly direction over northwestern waters by next week
Monday as another cold front approaches the islands from the
northwest.

The current extra large long to medium period northwest (310-330
degree) swell will continue to produce warning level surf along
exposed north and west facing shores today. A High Surf Warning
(HSW) remains in effect through the afternoon hours for these
shorelines, and a High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for
west facing shores of the Big Island. The northwest swell energy
will fall below warning thresholds later tonight, and the HSW will
transition to a HSA with the afternoon forecast package for the
same north and west facing shores lasting through Wednesday. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect today for most coastal
waters exposed to the large northwest swell and some waters
exposed to stronger winds.

Another extra large long period northwest (310-330 degree) swell
will build into the region by Thursday, likely producing another
round of warning level surf along exposed north and west facing
shores lasting through Friday, and lingering near advisory levels
Saturday before another reinforcing northwest swell briefly boosting
surf heights back above warning levels on Sunday and Sunday night.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through most of
this week due shifting wind directions from the passing fronts,
while no significant swells are expected to impact the state from
the south.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai
North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central
Valley North-Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kona-Kohala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi
Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island
Windward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Almanza
MARINE...Bohlin